2015-2016 Stats
39 – 39 – 4 (82 Points)
GF/G: 2.59 (20th)
GA/G: 2.93 (24th)
PP: 18.0% (19th)
PK: 80.2% (23rd)
5v5 Score-adjusted CF%: 44.1% (30th)
5v5 Score-adjusted CF60: 50.04 (27th)
5v5 Score-adjusted CA60: 63.42 (30th)
5v5 SV%: 92.76 (13th)
After PDO’ing their way to a division title in 2014, the Colorado Avalanche have followed up with two straight seasons of mediocre hockey. Looking at the roster, there’s really no reason this team should consistently be at or near the bottom in possession stats. There are signs that Joe Sakic might be figuring out what it takes to win in the modern NHL, but will that be enough to make the playoffs in a competitive Central?
Reasons for Optimism
Patrick Roy is gone: Seriously, was there anyone left who thought he knew what he was doing? I’m not sure anyone who follows the NHL could actually explain what his system was supposed to look like other than “Gee, I sure hope Varly gets a shutout tonight.” Over his entire tenure, the Avs were 29th in CF%, only ahead of Buffalo, who literally tried to be the worst team ever two years ago. I can’t tell you anything about Jared Bednar other than that there’s no way he’s worse than Roy.
Speed: Nate MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabe Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Tyson Barrie…yeah, there’s some wheels on this team. If the Avs have finally landed a coach who can properly unleash these guys, they will be annoying for the rest of the division.
Improving organizational accumen?: Smart one-year deal for stats-darling Patrick Wiercioch? Jiri Tlusty on a PTO? Turning Reto Berra into the possible middle-six piece that is Rocco Grimaldi? Signing MacKinnon to a deal with an AAV of only $6.3 million? These all sounds like very reasonable, smart bets for an organization that not 6 months ago you could say was one of the worst-run in the league pretty confidently.
Reasons For Pessimism
Depth: Tyson Barrie is a wonderful, smooth-skating defenseman and while Erik Johnson will never live down the fact that he went #1 overall in a draft with Jonathan Toews in it, he’s actually a really solid piece on the back end. However, there’s no true #1 defenseman on this team. And when you look back at recent cup champs you see names like Keith, Doughty, Letang, and Chara for a reason. And while I love the acquisition of Wierchoch you also have a 36-year-old Francois Beauchemin, Fedor Tyutin (Pee-yew am I right?), and Eric Gelinas. That’s, uh, not gonna get is done against the deeper teams in the division.
It’s a similar story with the forwards. Guys like Cody McLeod, John Mitchell, Joe Colbourne, and Blake Comeau are…fine. But not one of those guys put up more than 36 points last year. If Iginla drops off (and the dude is 39 years old for fuck’s sake), it’s fair to ask where the secondary scoring is going to come from. Save us, Mikko Rantanen, you’re our only hope.
Outlook
There’s a lot of encouraging signs to expect a level of competency that we haven’t seen from the Avs in a while, but competency ain’t gonna get it done in this division. It’s easy to imagine McKinnon ascending to be a top-20 player in the NHL this year. Duchene is in the middle of his prime scoring years. Landeskog might finally take that next step to becoming the next Marian Hossa. Semyon Varlamov has Vezina-winning capabilities, but there’s a reason his career SV% is only a slightly above-average .917. Combine that with a very ‘meh’ bottom of the roster and you have a recipe for a place just outside the wild-card spots.
Double Bickells On The Dime 