2015-2016 Stats
50 – 23 – 9 (109 Points)
GF/G: 3.23 (1st)
GA/G: 2.78 (19th)
PP: 22.1% (4th)
PK: 82.3% (10th)
5v5 Score-adjusted CF%: 52.71% (5th)
5v5 Score-adjusted CF60: 62.69 (2nd)
5v5 Score-adjusted CA60: 56.25 (17th)
5v5 SV%: 91.68 (27th)
An extremely fun run-and-gun team was able to make game seven of the second round of the playoff but was undone by their goaltending. I wonder if they fixed that in the offseason?
Reasons for Optimism
The Forward Group: I think it says something about a team that can lose a guy like Val Nichushkin and everyone just kind of shrugs. Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza. Solid contributors like Ales Hemsky, Cody Eakin, Antoine Roussel. Throw Jiri Hudler into the mix…yeah there was a reason why Lindy Ruff’s squad was 1st in goals last year.
John Klingberg: Only 24, Klingberg has established himself as one of the best defensemen in the NHL. This smooth-skating, offensive-minded Swede is exactly the kind of high-end player you need on the back-end to win in the NHL. If this Stars team continues punish opposing goaltenders, and the Stars have another great season, John Klingberg will be a dark-horse for the Norris trophy this year.
Reasons For Pessimism
Goaltending: Uh, so this team finished 27th in even-strength SV%, and they’re bringing back the same two netminders? That seems…sub-optimal. To be fair, both Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi have proven to be competent in the past. Hell, Niemi even won a cup, though the 2010 Blackhawks this Stars team is not. There is also the benefit of goaltending being somewhat random year-to-year – even Ondrej Pavalec and Mike Condon have had prolonged stretches of excellence (both of whom just got put on waivers.) Inexplicably, both these guys cost $10.4 million against the cap. Considering their reputation around the league, this makes it extremely hard to get one of Ben Bishop or Marc-Andre Fleury without swallowing some of that cap hit, a difficulty for a team already near the ceiling who will be looking to add other pieces at the deadline.
Defense sans Klingberg: This top-4 has the potential to be good, but also very mediocre. Dan Hamhuis did rock a 50.2 CF% on a trash Vancouver team, albeit with fairly easy zone starts and QoC. He’s also going to be 34 when playoffs roll around. Johnny Oduya had a 53 CF% in 830 minutes with Jason Demers and a 47.2% in 540 minutes without him. Demers is now in the sunshine state, while Oduya will be 35 this season. Jyrki Jokipakka looks like a fun piece as long as he is confined to facing only the other team’s bottom six. Stephen Johns looks like he might be ok? Jordie Benn sucks. Oleksiak is the definition of “a guy”. Granted the Pens just won a cup with Letang and a whole lot of “meh”, but the Stars might have to win a lot of 5-4 games to get there – no guarantee with this goaltending.
Outlook
The Stars will continue to run lesser teams out of the building. You can’t really hide goaltending in the playoffs though, not when you have to win four separate rounds. If it’s Crawford/Allen/Rinne vs. Niemi/Lehtonen who are you taking? Exactly. It would behoove the Stars to get that #1 seed and face an also-ran like the Minnesota Wild or a surprise playoff team like the Calgary Flames.
Double Bickells On The Dime 